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July 2002
Opportunities Galore
Perhaps it’s because more notable personalities have predicted newspapering doom before, but it comes as a bit of a surprise more attention hasn’t been paid to recent comments of Eric Scheirer of Forrester Research. In case you missed it, at the end of last year he said,
"…compared to other industries’ slide in ad sales, the newspaper industry is in a free fall. This isn’t just a downturn – it’s the beginning of the end."
Whether you agree or not, such comments must irritate us a little. What about down right Peter Finch – like mad and not take it anymore?
Is he right or wrong and what are we doing about it?
From our point of view based upon observation and the results of literally hundreds of thousands (the number is over a million when you consider the fact we’ve been surveying consumers for over 60 years!) of interviews conducted by Belden Associates, the answer is an unequivocal – we control our destiny.
Here’s why Scheirer is wrong:
There ARE genuine upheavals in our business model to contend with…classified revenue (especially recruitment) WILL NEVER return to 2000 levels. On the other hand, business is improving – we even had a client inquire about a project since they WERE going to have a research budget this fall! We’ve seen similar cycles before, even if this is more pronounced and complex thanks to the internet.
But, there are a couple of things which haven’t changed that should serve as the foundation of our continued success –
our ability to gather content and the strength of our relationships!!
Think about it…no other medium has what must be something on the order of 100,000 trained advertising representatives and reporters interacting and collecting very LOCAL information about their communities establishing relationships with those supporting our business.
Are we doing as good a job as we can?
Not a chance.
Can we do better? YOU BET!
Especially when the internet is embraced as a tool or channel (no matter how characterized, consider it a life saver) to advance our ability to serve both constituencies.
The answers and solution won’t be easy, but surely we can build on these considerable advantages?
Newspapers have far more information and news gathering abilities than any medium – in many markets, more than all other media combined. The key is to collect exactly what, then package and distribute in ways users want. Is the right content being captured? Has that been confirmed? Are there mechanisms in place allowing ongoing feedback? Are we creating platforms allowing community to communicate with community? Have we recognized that not all users want the entire package and that it must be distributed on any platform, and at the time and place where it will serve our readers and advertisers the best?
And, perhaps most importantly, are we constantly (AND, with an incredible sense of urgency!!) experimenting with new ways to do all these things?
The good news is that many organizations are on this path…the disappointing news is that many aren’t.
The worst news of all, those who aren’t responding to customers – really for the first time – will be unprofitable organizations within a generation. The situation is that critical… yet, full of that much opportunity.
From the business standpoint, advertisers really SHOULD be able to deliver targeted messages. From total market all the way down to household specific. There has been progress….many already have very attractive zoning capabilities and offers…everyone must.
You want to know the BEST part of this admittedly challenging production and distribution issue? Advertisers will pay more for less! That’s what happens once we conquer this nettlesome problem. An appealing proposition.
On the consumer front, the issues are even more daunting. With the consumer genuinely being "king", we’ll eventually be delivering exactly what they want… It’ll be even more difficult to strike a "what they want vs. what they need" balance. The sections, the content, on the platform, at different locations and probably even at different times. Yikes! No matter how much teeth gnashing and temporary margin reduction it takes, that’s where we’re headed.
(In some Scandinavian countries, customers aren’t "stopping" subscriptions while on vacation, they are "forwarding" to their PDA’s to pick up headlines while on holiday!)
Once again – if our vision does not clearly focus on developing such skill sets, then margins will ebb and flow, but steadily shrink towards non existence.
Circling back to Mr. Scheirer – he believes "guides" will be one key to future media consumption. He correctly notes the advent of Replay TV, TiVo and the like, potentially undermine traditional media business models and that advertisers and consumers will flock to such services.
He’s probably on target. What is harder to see are the steps our industry is taking to capitalize on this possibility? How are we positioning ourselves to fill that void? Which papers and organizations are setting their sights on the largest TV advertisers and suggesting a slightly different media mix during the next buying season? We’re already collecting much of the content these “guides” will require – is it being repackaged and marketed properly?
The business and opportunities are going to be HUGE…and, we’re looking forward to newspapers – no matter how and what that may eventually mean – taking as much advantage as possible and dashing the latest prophecy thanks to our cunning, innovation, creativity and pace!
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