February 2002

Crystal Ball Gazing

The inclination around here is to WAIT ‘til the year has started to look at trends, forecasts or even think about resolutions – year-end is entirely TOO busy! So, where are we headed? And, what hints at that direction? Are we taking the proper, or any, steps to take appropriate advantage? See if you agree with these; and, make sure to bookmark this for review in 11 months!

#1. The Internet is a bigger deal than we think!

Yes, the dot.coms have gone…it’s true that many organizations’ Internet or New Media divisions are not yet profitable, and that’s after hundreds of layoffs…overhead has been slashed by reintegrating in to newspaper operations…tracking stocks aren’t worth tracking, but EVERYTHING we do and find tells us the “best” is yet to come.

The pace of Internet penetration far exceeds – think at least twice as fast, and in some cases 6X – any other medium. And, we’re not even in anything resembling the Broadband age.

Yet, we’ve seen companies like IBM spread the word to ~18,000 suppliers that “…by the end of the year (2000) we’ll only do purchasing over the Internet.” IBM purchases 50 Billion dollars worth of supplies annually.

We ain’t seen nothing yet.

The good news is that by almost every conceivable measure, newspapers are well positioned to take advantage of whatever this trend offers. Technology aside, who else has the human capacity to gather the information and content that will ultimately be delivered however our customers desire? Combine that with a credible, trusted brand, and we should be in the proverbial driver’s seat.

Even better: newspaper web sites are already the #1 local news and information website in virtually all markets. Period.

Are we leveraging that? Are we connecting with old readers – off and online - in new ways? Creating new readers in ways both new and old? Are we maximizing this evolving relationship with advertising and reading customers? Are we figuring out ways to connect with the many databases already in our organizations? Are we even promoting across these platforms knowledgeably?

The answers to all questions MUST eventually be “Yes!”

#2. Hispanic everything is bigger than we think!

Most have seen 2000 Census data – as a percent of total U.S. population, the Hispanic population is 13.4%…right below 39,000,000 strong. And, still growing rapidly.

Despite this remarkable trend, how many – in any industry – have put money where this opportunity is?

Every major metropolitan newspaper publishes or is aligned with a Spanish language product, but how many are relative afterthoughts?

Looked at another way: this 39M community represents ~ 7% of all consumer spending, yet only 1% of all media expenditures target the Hispanic consumer.

The largest portion of the Hispanic population is of Mexican descent, but how well do we understand this segment? What about the other 19 countries of origin? How do behavior patterns change over generations? From the household to work? What kind of segmentation patterns have we described and are we creating the right ensemble of products to respond to this dynamic opportunity?

Again, the answer to each of our brainstorming questions needs to be “Yes!”

#3. Understanding audience is bigger and more important than we think!

The used to be well-honed instincts of several generations of newspaper executives are increasingly suspect. Damn! As a partner whose existence depends on the industry, we hate it when that happens.

The younger reader does NOT age gracefully into a middle age, newspaper-reliant customer. Certainly not ink smeared on newsprint. There’s far too much evidence to suggest those abandoning newspapers are relying on other media, or worse yet, completely indifferent and not interested in “news” at all.

So, what are we doing about it?

We’ve see valuable information and processed data via the Readership Institute that should catalyze us towards action…will it?

Bottom line to every shred of research we conduct and are familiar with is that declining readership can be arrested and reversed. There ARE steps newspapers large and small can take to increase readership. Many inexpensively.

But fundamental to achieving that goal is the necessity of understanding what readers, advertisers AND those within our organizations want. That means connecting and listening in new, more sincere ways. Then ACTING on what we learn…quickly…repeatedly…and promoting those actions.

Those are the top 3 issues we see looming on the very close horizon – what about you? Share whatever you’d like to add to this short list; or, disagree and set us